Thursday, May 19, 2011

Election Predictions

So Michael emailed me today and challenged all of us to predict the results for the election. Okay lets do it here...

So this is the idea. You will have a chance to list your guesses now, then come 30 August you will have a chance to revise your picks. I will organise two prizes, one for who is closest from the first pick, then one who is closest from the revised picks. We will say there are 122 seats.

Clear as mud?

Here I go with my first guess.
National 53
Labour 47
Greens 11
Maori Party 2
Mana 2
United Future 1

Left/centre left with 60 seats
Right/centre right with 60 seats
Maori Party with the balance of power

My boggle here is NZ First, I acknowledge you should never could Winston out, but right now I don't think they are goers. However if they were I think it would be at the expense of mostly ACT with people looking for a genuine third party and make the win easier for the left.

Put your predictions in the comments below, feel free to make any 'fence sitting' comments as I have done ;o) as well

1 comment:

  1. My picks (Michael W)

    National 52
    Labour 45
    Green 8
    ACT 11
    Māori 4
    United Future 1
    Mana 1

    IF NZ First get over the line (and I believe it’s a 60/40 against them doing that), they would get 5 or 6 seats and if that happened – these would come from ACT, National and Labour – 1 or 2 each!